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Science Advisory Table Releases Latest COVID-19 Modelling

Tuesday, 28 September 2021 at 16:18

By Linda Morgan

Experts say hospitalization and ICU rates are stable, but loosening restrictions could cause case counts to surge.

The province's science advisory table is cautiously optimistic about the state of the pandemic in Ontario. 

The table says the latest projections show the fourth wave has flattened in large part due to public health measures. 

However, officials say we're not quite out of the woods yet. 

The group notes while hospital and ICU admission rates have remained stable, projections indicate the province could see anywhere from under 200 to over 300 ICU beds used by COVID-19 patients by the end of October. 

The modelling suggests if there is no change in policy or behavior, the seven day average of new cases could hit 1,500 by the beginning of November. 

The group says lifting restrictions could cause case counts to surpass 5,000 by the end of November. 

It also noted that COVID-19 cases are rising among children 11 and under, who can't get vaccinated yet. 

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